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Auto Insurance: the Past Can Predict the Present

Drivers who have had several accidents in the past are more likely to have another accident today, according to the most recent data published by Groupement des assureurs automobiles.

Claims frequency: a key predictor

In fact, the 2018 data shows that the more accidents a policyholder has had in previous years, the higher the likelihood of having one in the current year. In the group of policyholders who have had three at-fault accidents during the period from 2015-2017, 22.38% had another accident in 2018. However, in the policyholder group that had no accident during this period, only 11.74% had an accident in 2018.

The data also shows that the more accidents a policyholder had from 2015-2017, the greater the claims frequency in 2018.

Number of at-fault accidents
2015 - 2017

Number of insured vehicles

Claims frequency in 2018














The premium reflects the risk

The data also confirms that those who had more accidents pay a higher premium to insure their vehicle.

Number of at-fault accidents
2015 - 2017

Average premium










In 2018, drivers with three accidents between 2015 and 2017 paid $1,262, on average, for their insurance premium. The premium was $1,039 for those with two accidents, and $767 for one accident. On the flip side, drivers who had no accidents profited from the lowest premium, $523 on average.

Good driving habits: a solution to thwart these predictions

The data reveals a key insurance principle: the premium is calculated based on the risk each driver represents. If a policyholder is involved in a greater number of accidents, he will pay a higher premium than a driver who had no accident.

The data stresses the importance of adopting safe driving habits; by avoiding accidents, drivers help better control the cost of their auto insurance.

Check the GAA web site to consult the 2018 statistical tables.


Source : GROUPEMENT DES ASSUREURS AUTOMOBILES, Automobile Statistical Plan, General Results, Private Passenger Cars, 2018.


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